Typhoon Lupit is forecast to strike the Philippines at about 06:00 GMT on 21 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 18.0 N, 122.3 E. Lupit is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 222 km/h (138 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Lupit's strength (category 4) at landfall includes:
*Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal.
*Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences.
*Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down.
*Complete destruction of mobile homes.
*Extensive damage to doors and windows.
*Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.
*Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles).
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
Here's the latest 5 Day Forecast Map View of Typhoon Ramil (International name-Lupit)
An Updated 5 Day Forecast Map View of Typhoon Ramil (International name-Lupit) 17 Oct 2009 pm
An Updated Track Map View of Typhoon Ramil (International name-Lupit) 17 Oct 2009 pm
An Updated NASA Satellite View of typhoon Ramil (International Name-Lupit)
3 PM JST Sat Oct 17 2009
Position 15.6N 132.3E
Maximum Winds 110mph
Gusts 130mph
Movement NW at 9mph
· LUPIT(RAMIL) has rapidly intensified...now classified as a Super Typhoon, with 1-min. avg winds of 240 km/hr...still heading ENE across the Philippine Sea.
*Residents and visitors along Luzon (Northern Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slow down further for the next 24 hours, as the influence of the mid-level low pressure trough off Japan on this system dissipates. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT returning back to its Westward path, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and moves across east of Taiwan. This ridge will steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon & South China Sea from Tuesday until Friday (Oct 19-23), reaching the Category 5 treshold strength (250 kph). LUPIT shall pass very close to the coastal beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, with a close approach of about 5 to 15 km. to the north of Pagudpod, Ilocos Norte on Thursday afternoon, Oct 22nd. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might do a clockwise loop and track more WSW-ward than forecasted with a strike across Northern or Central Luzon. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China strengthens more. This alternate forecast remains low at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
Effects: LUPIT's large circulation has become more impressive, w/ a 40-km. slightly irregular Eye. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon - if the forecast track becomes a reality, thus deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning Tuesday (Oct 20). 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]